WASHINGTON (AP) — The Republican bill to replace major portions of Barack Obama’s health care law and restructure Medicaid would leave 24 million people uninsured over the next decade, according to projections from the Congressional Budget Office. A look at what the CBO said Monday in its estimates of the House GOP plan that’s backed by President Donald Trump:
— The bill would reduce the deficit by $337 billion over a decade. The largest savings would come from reductions in money for Medicaid, the federal-state health care program for low-income Americans, and elimination of the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies for non-group health insurance.
— Fourteen million more people would be uninsured next year. That increase would include 6 million who don’t get coverage on the individual market, some 5 million people under Medicaid and about 2 million with employment-based coverage.
— The CBO estimates that the number of uninsured would rise to 21 million in 2020 and 24 million in 2026. Much of the increase in uninsured would be due to changes in Medicaid enrollment as states end their expansion of eligibility.
— In 2026, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured compared with 28 million under Obama’s law.
— Average premiums in the insurance market for individuals would rise in 2018 and 2019 by 15 percent to 20 percent, compared with current law, because Republicans would eliminate the penalties designed to induce people to buy insurance coverage, leading to higher costs for those who remain.
— Beginning in 2020, premiums would begin to fall in comparison with current law, and by 2026 average premiums for people buying individual coverage would be roughly 10 percent lower than current law. However, premiums would vary significantly for people of different ages because of a change Republicans would make allowing old people to be charged more for insurance coverage, compared with young people, than allowed under Obama’s law.
— The GOP health care bill prohibits funds for Planned Parenthood for one year, and the CBO estimates the number of births in the Medicaid program would increase by several thousand.